Lake-Effect vs. El Niño

Good news for consumers of propane and natural gas in the Northeast. Propane and natural gas usage is expected to be significantly impacted by the 2026–2027 Super El Niño event, primarily due to its influence on winter weather patterns. Historically, El Niño winters in this Northeast are characterized by warmer and less snowy conditions than average, which directly affects the demand for residential and commercial heating fuels. However, the Great Lakes can also significantly influence winter weather patterns in the Northeast, particularly in the Western New York region, due to the phenomenon known as lake-effect. Will the lake-effect phenomenon offset or negate the El Niño effect this year? Here’s Norco’s best guess.

The Lake-Effect Mechanism:

Cold Arctic air masses coming down from Canada and passing over the relatively warmer Great Lakes pick up moisture and heat. When this air reaches the downwind shores of the Great Lakes, it typically cools and releases this moisture as snow. Because of this, western and central New York, including Buffalo, Rochester, and the Tug Hill Plateau, often experience heavy localized snowfalls, even blizzard-like conditions. Snowfall can be extremely intense and localized, producing several feet of snow in narrow bands while nearby areas remain relatively clear.

Reduced Heating Demand:

However, this year in Western New York, we anticipate demand for propane and natural gas to be considerably less throughout the entire winter heating season because of a combination of factors. First, relatively warm water temperatures will keep ambient air temperatures along the shores of the Great Lakes above freezing throughout the early winter months. If we receive some form of lake-effect storm, it will be in the form of heavy precipitation, which could cause heavy flooding but no snow. A potentially strong Super El Niño event will keep air temperatures moderate throughout the entire winter heating season, preventing the Great Lakes from freezing, which will also delay the onset of any significant snow accumulation. In short, we think it’s going to be a cool (not freezing) wet winter. 

Key Differences:

Although rare, in certain situations, such as the developing weather pattern here in the Northeast, local lake-effect conditions can act in tandem with large scale oceanic-atmospheric conditions such as an El Niño, or La Niña. You need only look back to 2023-2024 to understand the significance of this. That was the warmest-ever year (an El Niño year) in the historical record, the first in which the overall global temperature increased by more than 1.5 degrees versus the pre-industrial benchmark. Can a big lake-effect snow event still happen, of course! But the likelihood of a sustained cold and snow event is drastically lower than a typical “normal” winter season. For example, the total snowfall for the winter season (October-May) in 2023-2024 was 71.3” compared to the average annual snowfall in the Buffalo/WNY area being 95.4”.

Keep in mind that a lake-effect snow storm is considered a local, short-term event, whereas a El Niño is a global and seasonal-to-annual event. A lake-effect snow storm impacts small regions along the entire Great Lakes region, whereas a El Niño affects weather patterns across continents. The upcoming Super El Niño is forecast to make the past events of 1982, 1997, 2015, and 2023 look minor in comparison. 

Lower Seasonal Sales Volumes:

With fewer cold snaps and less severe winter weather anticipated, propane distributors in the Northeast are bracing for decreased sales volumes during the peak winter months of December through February. If the demand for propane falls significantly below expectations, retailers and wholesalers in the Northeast will experience higher-than-usual inventory levels. This surplus could put short-term downward pressure on regional propane prices, as suppliers attempt to clear excess stock, which is good news for residential and commercial customers.  The milder conditions associated with the El Niño event will undoubtedly lead to slower usage of residential propane, leading to fewer deliveries, leading to spending less money to heat your home or business.

NORCO is your hometown propane supplier, and the propane leaders in Western New York. We’re going to be there for you 24/7, 12 months out of the year ready willing and able to provide the level of service you need, whatever the weather brings in this complex climate. You can count on it.